For COTC projects to be successful, the technology and configuration choices to ensure operational reliability and availability are critical, according to IHS Markit’s latest Process Economic Program (PEP) analysis. Finding an outlet for the large amount of chemicals produced is also a critical competitive factor. Several projects are currently following a path of configuring a refinery to produce maximum volumes of chemicals, instead of transportation fuels as in a conventional refinery. Four are by Chinese companies in China and Brunei, with the fifth being the Aramco-SABIC JV at Yanbu, Saudi Arabia.

All these refinery-based COTC projects will be able to convert 40–60% per barrel of oil to chemicals, says IHS Markit. The plant already operating is Hengli Petrochemical’s COTC refinery-para-xylene complex at Dalian, China. Hengli announced in May that it had achieved full-line trial production. The complex is expected to produce 4.34 MMt/y of p-xylene, in addition to 3.9 MMt/y of other chemicals. The total chemical conversion per barrel of oil is estimated to be 42%. The first phase of Zhejiang Petroleum and Chemical’s COTC refinery-p-xylene project in Zhejiang Province, China, is close to completion with several units in initial trial operation. Full operation is expected before the end of this year, with Phase 1 expected to produce 4.0 MMt/y of p-xylene, 1.5 MMt/y of benzene, 1.4 MMt/y of ethylene, and other downstream petrochemicals. The total chemical conversion per barrel of oil is about 45%. Phase 2 of the project is also underway and when complete will be of a similar scale to Phase 1 but including two world-scale steam crackers compared with one for the first phase. The total chemical conversion is forecast to then rise to 50%. Hengyi Industries’ PMB project in Brunei is expected to start up COTC plants in 2020. When it does, the three plants combined will add 9.8 MMt/y of p-xylene capacity, as well as 3.4 MMt/y of ethylene.

Scheduled to follow in 2021 is Shenghong Petrochemical Group’s refining and petchem facility in Jiangsu Province, China, with a planned oil refining capacity of 16 MMt/y, with 2.8 MMt/y of p-xylene and 1.1 MMt/y of ethylene capacity.

The unprecedented scale of these plants will change the industry’s structure, said Sanjay Sharma, vice president/Middle East and India at IHS Markit, speaking at IHS Markit’s recent 7th Annual Asia Chemical Conference held in Singapore. China’s crude-to-p-xylene plants will allow some polyethylene terephthalate and polyester producers to integrate backward and further blur the line between refiners and petchem producers, he said.

Maximizing chemicals from crude Aramco and SABIC’s Yanbu project is being driven by Aramco’s push to better monetize its oil assets. With the forecast gradual slowdown and eventual decline of fuel demand by 2030–35, Aramco has a strong incentive to convert a higher percentage per barrel of oil to higher-value chemicals, especially light olefins production. Aramco’s Al-Khowaiter stated earlier this year that “maximizing the output of high-value chemicals products from our future crude-oil processing projects is one of the key objectives in our downstream technology strategy.”

At Yanbu the companies aim to refine 20 MMt/y of light crude to produce 9 MMt/y of chemicals including 3.3 MMt/y of ethylene. The COTC project, if it does proceed to sanction, will add the equivalent in terms of ethylene capacity of two world-scale steam crackers. The plant is expected to be operational within 7-8 years, though it will initially only utilize part of its capability to convert the crude using dual cracker trains, according to IHS Markit’s Europe/Middle East Light Olefins Monthly Report.

Abdulrahman Al-Fageeh, SABIC executive vice president/petrochemicals, spoke to Chemical Week about the project’s progress at the recent K 2019 plastics fair in Düsseldorf, Germany. Fageeh said the potential project forms part of SABIC’s ambitions for global growth, wherever it can find advantaged feedstocks. “All these projects, including the COTC, during the design and development phase, go through a gating procedure until a final investment decision is made. During that time, we will look at all the economics and some of the projects go ahead and others get refined. The COTC project would employ unique and complex technology. This is the first time that we are developing a petrochemicals project based on this process and the technologies need to be demonstrated and evaluated,” he said. He added that “nothing is going to change until we go through a [final] gate, and when we reach that gate and make the proper analysis for the economics, we can either move or rescope the project, or do something else with it.”

Aramco is currently working with its technology partners to develop at least three new technologies using differing processes aimed at converting up to 80% per barrel of oil to basic chemicals and petchems. If its collaboration with companies such as McDermott, Chevron Lummus Global, CB&I, TechnipFMC, and Axens—in combination with its own proprietary technologies—achieves this, a COTC plant receiving 20 MMt/y of oil could produce up to 16 MMt/y of chemicals, says IHS Markit.

Whereas a world-scale, integrated refining and petrochemical facility typically earns about $8.50/bbl of oil, a facility employing Aramco’s COTC design could achieve plant net margins of approximately $17/bbl, according to Bari and PEP study co-author Michael Arné, executive director/ emerging technologies research.

“This process is both transformative in terms of its potential, and timely, as refiners face declining future demand for gasoline and fuel production due to carbon emission mandates, greater vehicle fuel efficiency, and an increasing penetration of electric vehicles,” said Bari. “The objective is to shift the product slate derived from a barrel of oil to a range of 60% to 80% chemical production and nonfuel products, up from the traditional range of 10% to 15% or so, in order to significantly increase the value of crude oil reserves and provide demand security in Aramco’s case. This transformative COTC technology goes beyond even the most highly integrated sites today that are pushing 30-40% chemicals production with traditional approaches,” Bari said.